bellwether counties epoch times

It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. . Im not even sure what direction were going.. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. She shook her head at the high price of gas. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. We dont want it, she said. Im not happy with either party. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Its gone, Jacobs said. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. 0:00 0:00. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Theyre scared. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. He didnt vote in 2016 either. At least Biden is honest, he said. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. I would never vote any other way. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. It will cycle through. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. He loves this country. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. I think it worked out without me.. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Your email address will not be published. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Were a service industry-oriented area. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Two states have announced recounts. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Required fields are marked *. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Theres too much corruption. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. Theres significant variability among them though. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. I hope.. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. This is a high farming community.. I dont listen to the news. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Two states have announced recounts. But thats not the picture I look at. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Bremer County, Iowa Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. That is a very good thing to have. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. You have to take the lesser of two evils. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Im looking at both sides of it. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. SACRAMENTO . Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. I think we needed somebody like him.. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. And its never going to come back.. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. "If. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. About The Author. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Theres too much mishandling, she said. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Farming also is huge here. I think thats what the world needed. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Right now, its horrible. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Its crazy. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Logistically, its a disaster. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. People need to get a job, get out and work. We need election reform.. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. I kind of keep in my bubble. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate.

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